October 2026

Softer core inflation cut October hike odds to one in three, but the 10-year yield climbed again

Prediction markets cut the odds of an October Fed hike from 45% to about 34% after a softer core inflation reading, yet the 10-year Treasury yield rose toward 5.3%. On The Compound, Michael Batnick bought long bonds while warning a 5.6% 10-year would break the stock market, and on Prof G Markets, Paul Kedrosky called a $2 trillion Anthropic IPO a ridiculous price.

• 1Softer core inflation cut October hike odds to one in three, but long yields kept rising
• 2Micron beat on every line, and the index still rests on a narrow set of winners
• 3Anthropic's leaked filing prices $4.6bn of revenue at about $2 trillion as other IPOs pull back
• 4Washington is steering $200bn of Korean money into US nuclear and gas power while oil eases