How these are chosen: each run fetches today’s Federal Reserve indicators (inflation, interest rates, unemployment, oil) plus ~30 broad macro and geopolitical headlines. Our AI reads that context and generates 15–20 Polymarket search terms relevant to equity sector rotation right now — the terms change daily as macro events shift. Each term is run through Polymarket’s API; we keep only active markets with at least $50k traded, a deadline still in the future, and a matching search result — then rank by trading volume (capital-weighted attention) and surface the top 9.
What the percentage means: it’s the Polymarket Yes-probability for the specific question shown in the smaller grey line (the “market question”). For multi-outcome events like “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?”, Polymarket packages several sub-questions under one event title (e.g. “Will there be 0 cuts?”, “Will there be 1 cut?”, etc.) — we surface the top sub-question by volume. The probability always refers to that specific sub-question, not the event title above it.