1Anthropic's filing shows the business at its best, just before its spending turns
Anthropic's S-1 reported $16.3 billion of revenue in the first half of 2026, up from $1.2 billion a year earlier. Its operating loss narrowed to about $693 million, from $2.1 billion. A headline loss above $80 billion is mostly a $72 billion non-cash charge on convertible notes, which grows as the company's value rises. Paul Kedrosky, of SK Ventures, said on Prof G Markets that the loss was about $400 million narrower than he expected.
The commitments are the problem he sees. On page 161 the filing lists compute deals with Broadcom worth $161 billion and Google worth $115 billion. Ed Elson, the host, added them up to more than $800 billion, with no timetable given. Kedrosky stressed that almost all of it is non-cancellable. The filing also says a growing share of spending will become upfront capital expenditure, because Anthropic leases most of its compute from its own competitors. His read: the income statement describes a business that is about to change shape. Both men argued the listing is timed for the moment the margins look best.
A counter-reading came from The Compound and Friends. Its hosts cited more than 11,900 customers spending $100,000 a year and about 250 spending $10 million or more. They also quoted a figure from the filing that Fortune 500 spending on Anthropic is under 0.1% of those firms' total expenses, which they read as early penetration. A separate Prof G Markets clip framed the true loss as about $9 billion on $16 billion of revenue. That does not match the $693 million operating loss in the main episode, so the two clips are measuring different things. The filing itself would settle it.
Prediction markets expect the listing soon. Polymarket prices an IPO by 30 November at 91.5%, up 3 points, though on only about $9,600 of daily volume. Its closing-market-cap contract puts the most weight on $1.75–2.0 trillion, at 28.5%, with $2.0–2.25 trillion at 24.5% on about $44,000 of volume. Kedrosky expects about $1.5 trillion. The so what: the filing answered the near-term doubts that lifted tech on Monday. The capital bill it describes has not reached the numbers yet.
2Credit markets, not stock prices, are setting the terms for the AI build
Robert Armstrong, of the Financial Times, told Prof G Markets that last week's Treasury rally felt like "a turning point." The 10-year yield fell 19 basis points in a single day as the Nasdaq-100 had its worst day since June. FRED shows the 10-year at 5.00% on 26 October. Elson put it near 5.3% at the start of the month. Corporate bond spreads widened to their widest since May 2025, the episode reported. Elson read a post from Elon Musk saying debt markets have shut for any firm without revenue outside AI data centers. Musk predicted "guppy-level death" among the more than 200 smaller AI cloud companies.
Armstrong drew the consequence. If financing dries up, the big cloud spenders , , and could go back to buybacks, and their shares might rise. CoreWeave would go "to zero" in that case, he said. The chip complex, and , would take the largest loss. He added that the industrials tied to data-center construction, such as GE Vernova , Caterpillar and Comfort Systems , have lagged since May. Defensive staples like Kimberly-Clark have been bid. Ross Givens, in a short on his channel, made a related case. He named a buy zone about 37% below the current price for the one large spender he says funds AI from cash.
The equity tape disagreed on Tuesday. Investopedia reported tech extended its rally, and SK hynix's results lifted chip stocks overnight. Micron rose about 1.4% after hours. Reuters reported that AI investment powered US business equipment spending in September. The two readings are unresolved. This week's earnings from the big spenders, starting with Microsoft and Alphabet, are what would settle them.
3A refinery strike put oil's year-end spike risk back on the table, even as the truce firmed
Yemen's Houthis said they hit Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery with a missile on Tuesday, Reuters reported. Oil rose overnight on renewed supply concerns. December crude traded near $101.55, up 1.65%, after falling more than 6% from near-wartime highs on Iran diplomacy. Brent had peaked above $117 on Monday, Prof G Markets noted. The Pentagon now puts US costs of the Iran war above $47 billion, and Reuters reported food and household brands warning of more price rises.
The markets now split near-term calm from durability. Polymarket prices the US–Iran ceasefire holding through 31 October at 94.5%, up 2.5 points, on about $281,000 of daily volume. Through 30 November it is 36.5%, down 2 points. Through 31 December it is 24%, down 5.5 points. Kalshi's contract on WTI topping $115 by year-end rose to 42.8% from 34.2%, on about 707,000 contracts of open interest, though daily trading was thin.
The President posted that the first shipment of one million barrels of Venezuelan oil was arriving in Corpus Christi, Texas. He wrote that gasoline and diesel prices "will soon come plummeting down." The so what: one shipment is small against a refinery outage, and the year-end spike odds rose on the same day the short truce firmed. A truce stops the escalation premium building. It does not protect the infrastructure.
What the sources recommended
Ross Givens, on his channel, called Crown Castle "the purest way to own the tower story." His case rests on reporting by Bloomberg that SpaceX is seeking access to at least 80,000 US cell sites. Crown Castle owns about 40,000 towers and is now a pure US tower company after selling its small-cell business. Givens argued SpaceX may buy Crown outright rather than lease. He was explicit that this is his own theory and that every report so far describes leases. He cited about 19 times cash earnings and a dividend near 4.9%. Two conditions sit on the call in his own telling: SpaceX must sign something, and the FCC must approve its low-band spectrum purchase. He promoted a paid trading membership in the same video. The stock is up about 25% since 8 October, he said.
Givens also named the alternatives. American Tower has most of its towers overseas, and SBA Communications has not been named in the talks. AT&T , Verizon and T-Mobile would be both Crown's main tenants and SpaceX's new competitors. Crown Castle was also a disclosed holding of a Lazard fund manager in Monday's research, a separate reason from a separate source.
The Fed is priced for a hold today, and December is where the risk sits
Kalshi prices a hold at today's Fed decision at 96%, up from 93%, on about 604,000 contracts traded in a day. A 25-basis-point hike is at 5%. Polymarket prices no change at 95.45% on about $3.8 million of volume. December is different. Kalshi prices a hike there at 75%, unchanged, but on only about 12,000 contracts a day. The effective fed funds rate was 3.75% in September, up from 3.63%, after the last hike.
Earnings carry the week. Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon report, and Yahoo Finance framed them around AI spending. Boeing had its worst day since 2020, down about 10.7%, after its 737 production ramp slipped into 2027. Robinhood fell about 7% after missing third-quarter estimates despite record trading volume. Israel's election ended deadlocked, Reuters reported, and Brazilian assets remain under pressure after Lula's re-election. The so what: with the Fed priced, the spending guidance from the cloud companies is the event that can move the AI trade this week.
