1The AI bubble is real, but the mispricing sits in private markets, not public stocks
Ed Elson, on Prof G Markets, said the AI build shows "all of the telltale signs of a boom and bust cycle." He compared it to the railroads of 1873. Yet he argued public markets already price that risk. He wants to see the big cloud companies at 50 to 70 times earnings before calling them a bubble, and they are not there. Where he sees risk mispriced is the private market, in Anthropic and OpenAI. Scott Galloway, on the same show, put the scale at about $750 billion of spending this year by Meta, Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet. He said those commitments assume the market grows to $3 trillion of revenue, against about $1.5 trillion for all of big tech today. He called that "a classic bubble." He also named Meta as the likely biggest winner of the boom in three years.
The private-market test is arriving now. Anthropic's public S-1 filing lifted AI stocks on Monday, according to Reuters and Investopedia. Polymarket now prices an Anthropic listing in November at 87.7%, up 25 points in a day, though on only about $9,000 of trading. The deeper "IPO by 31 December" contract sits at 93.5%, up 11.5 points, on about $56,000. CNBC reported the S-1 gives founders control through a "Founder LLC" structure, leaving ordinary shareholders little say.
The stress shows up in the companies that rent out the chips. Yahoo Finance reported CoreWeave and other AI landlords hit their lowest in more than a year, as the cost of insuring CoreWeave's debt doubled. Andy Constan, in a clip on Excess Returns, said a CoreWeave failure would not be a financial crisis. Its chips would be bought by someone else. The danger he sees is a slowdown that cuts the stocks 30%. His broader view is that the profits promised across AI add up to more than the economy can supply: "100 contestants and there are only 50 chairs." He said the answer is to "buy some bonds" and "short some equities." Prof G added a Business Insider report that Amazon holds GPUs it cannot yet install, because power and buildings are the bottleneck. The so what: Elson and Constan agree the numbers do not add up. They disagree on whether the public market has noticed. Anthropic's listing price is the first real test of that.
2AI agents are turning into a new line in the security budget
George Kurtz, CrowdStrike's chief executive, told Josh Brown on The Compound that companies "don't know where our AI agents are." He said likely agent-driven attacks doubled from July to August and again into September. He described a single amateur using agents to compromise 15 healthcare groups in Argentina. CrowdStrike has moved its $10 billion annual-recurring-revenue target a year earlier, to fiscal 2030. The stock is up about 120% this year. This was a chief executive interview with no bear case put to him. Brown also said he is a shareholder.
Ross Givens, on his channel, cited Gartner for the same trend. Gartner ranks agentic AI as the top security issue for 2026. It expects spending to secure AI to reach $2.8 billion this year, up 83%. Givens pointed to the gap in price across the group. He said CrowdStrike trades at 48 times sales, Qualys at about 10 and Tenable at about 5. Rapid7 trades at about 1.5. The so what: if agents are a new attack surface, security spending rises across the group. The disagreement is whether the cheapest name is cheap for a reason.
3A Tesla–SpaceX merger would trade Tesla's voting rights for a better story
Elon Musk confirmed last week that special committees at Tesla and SpaceX are studying a merger. Galloway, on Prof G Markets, called it "a real merger with a fake premise." He said SpaceX revenue grew 161% with a 60% EBITDA margin, while Tesla's revenue was flat and operating income fell 56%. He sees a pattern: SolarCity went into Tesla, and Twitter went into xAI and then SpaceX. "Tesla is the patient, and SpaceX is the organ donor." Elson argued the bigger cost is control. Musk holds about 80% of SpaceX votes against about 20% of Tesla's. Paying in non-voting SpaceX shares would strip Tesla holders of their say. Elson also called the roughly $2 trillion SpaceX value unreliable, because only 15–20% of the shares trade. Galloway disclosed he owns Tesla .
The prediction markets do not agree on timing. Prof G quoted Kalshi at 81% for a merger before 2028. Polymarket prices a deal officially announced by 31 December 2027 at 60.5%, down 3 points, on about $4,000 of trading. Both are thin. Rob Arnott, in a clip on Excess Returns, explained why the share count matters. Index funds must buy about a quarter of the free float when a stock joins the S&P 500. He said he would buy the listing to sell into that demand. Galloway raised a second risk: if Democrats take both chambers on 3 November, Musk faces subpoenas over Starlink in Ukraine. Polymarket prices Democrats winning the House at 91.5% and the Senate at 66.5%, on deep volume. The so what: the merger's price for Tesla holders depends on a SpaceX value that a small float sets. Index buying is what keeps that float tight.
4Oil is falling on Iran diplomacy faster than the attacks are stopping
Oil fell more than 6% from near-wartime highs as Iran diplomacy seemed to gather pace, Euronews reported via Yahoo Finance. December crude futures traded near $100.92 overnight, down 0.8%. The attacks continue, though. Reuters reported the Saudi-led coalition intercepted Houthi missiles and drones on Tuesday. Egypt approved military support for Saudi Arabia. Netanyahu, before Israel's vote today, suggested he and the President may restart the war on Iran, Reuters reported.
Prediction markets have moved toward calm. Polymarket prices the US–Iran ceasefire holding through 31 October at 92.5%, up 9 points, on about $200,000 of daily volume. Through the midterms it is 85%, up 4.5 points. Through 30 November it is only 38.5%. Kalshi's contract on WTI topping $115 by year-end fell to 34.2% from 40.1%, on about 707,000 contracts of open interest. Reuters also reported IEA chief Fatih Birol does not expect energy markets to return to pre-war levels in 2027.
Gold eased with oil, to about $4,020. Felix Prehn, on Felix & Friends, took on a viral claim that "lab gold" could crash the metal the way lab diamonds did. He said one fusion plant might make 2–5 tonnes a year at best, against 3,000–4,000 tonnes mined. He said the mercury input costs about 100,000 times the gold's value. He still declined to buy the miners. He said the miners ETF is in a downtrend, and he would wait on Southern Copper until it sits about $40 lower. The so what: the near-term ceasefire is priced as likely, and a longer one is not. Israel's election is the next test.
What the sources recommended
Five single-name calls came from ten videos, and four came from one fund manager's holdings. Warryn Robertson, of Lazard, on Equity Mates, named H&R Block as the stock he is most excited about. He cited a price of seven to nine times earnings, no debt, and half the shares bought back in a decade. He said American Tower and Crown Castle are two of his largest holdings, after tower stocks fell by about two-thirds. He framed all three on a three-to-five-year view, and said his fund is down 10.8% over the past year. He also said he sold PayPal and lost money on it, having concluded he was "on the wrong side" of the shift in online payments.
Ross Givens, on his channel, bought 700 shares of Rapid7 , he said. He cited about $145 million of free cash flow against a value near $1 billion, and about eight times forward earnings. He set a target in the mid-$20s against about $16 now. He also promoted a paid membership in the same video, and the stock has nearly tripled since April.
Fed day and the AI spenders' results arrive inside 48 hours
Markets already price the Fed. Kalshi prices a hold on 28 October at 92%, down a point, with about 1.2 million contracts traded in a day. A 25-basis-point hike is at 7%. Polymarket prices no change at 93.85% on about $3.5 million of volume. December is different: Kalshi prices a hike at 75%, but on fewer than 9,000 contracts in a day. FRED shows the 10-year Treasury at 5.00% on 23 October, up from 4.96%. Ben Carlson, on The Compound, said yields are the highest since 2007, but he would stay at four to six years of duration. Long bonds swing too much, he said. Constan expects the 10-year to hold at 5–5.25% for three to four months, a headwind for the economy.
The results follow. Prof G listed Visa, Coca-Cola, Boeing, Google, Microsoft, ServiceNow, Amazon, Eli Lilly, Intel and SanDisk this week. PayPal also reports on Tuesday, a direct test of Robertson's exit. SK Hynix and Samsung report soon; Korea's KOSPI jumped 4.5% ahead of them. Israel votes today, and the UK delivers its budget. The so what: with the Fed priced, spending guidance from Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon decides whether Galloway's $3 trillion assumption still holds.
