1October hike odds rose to 68% as yields climbed, and the market expects this week's jobs report to cool
Kalshi's contract on a 25bp hike at the 28 October Fed meeting last traded at 68 cents, up from 66 cents. The hold contract fell from 33 to 30 cents. The hold contract alone carries 821,000 contracts of open interest, so this is a deep market. Kalshi prices a December hike at 74 cents, up from 68.
Bond prices moved the same way. Yahoo Finance showed the 10-year yield at 5.24% early Tuesday, up six basis points. FRED's last print was 5.17% on 25 September. The gap between the 10-year and 2-year yields narrowed to 0.32 points on 28 September, from 0.36 on Friday. When short yields rise faster than long ones, investors are pricing more hikes soon. Reuters reported the dollar near a two-month peak and gold near a seven-week low. The S&P 500 ETF fell 0.8% on Monday. Boeing fell 7% after the FAA delayed the 737 Max 10 on a software issue. That drop is specific to Boeing, not a signal about the wider market.
The jobs data is expected to cool. FRED shows August payrolls up 162,000, with unemployment at 4.1%. Kalshi prices September payrolls above 100,000 at 45 cents on about 14,900 contracts of open interest, and above 50,000 at 71 cents. It prices unemployment above 4.0% at 71 cents, down from 78, and above 4.1% at 39 cents.
The videos disagreed about what more hikes would do. Felix Nicholas Brue, on Felix & Friends, relayed Bill Ackman's argument that AI builders will keep borrowing whatever the rate. On that view, rate rises pass into prices through financing costs and feed inflation. He cited about $500bn of AI-related debt issuance this year, but gave no source. On Excess Returns, Andy Constan sized the Treasury's larger bond buybacks at $75–100bn a year. He expects that to cut the 10-year yield by five to ten basis points at most, because growth and inflation expectations set long yields.
So what: hike pricing rose, and the Treasury's buybacks are too small to offset it. A soft jobs report on Friday would be the first data to push the other way. Ackman's argument, that hikes feed inflation, cannot be settled by one payrolls print.
2Investors are refusing to fund data centres that have no operating sites
On Prof G Markets, Scott Galloway and Ed Elson walked through a week of failed deals. According to the New York Times, SB Energy's bankers could not fill an IPO at a $50bn valuation. The company reported $214m of revenue, down 8%, and has no operating data centres. About 9% of its contracted capacity is under construction. Holtec's nuclear unit postponed its IPO, and its CEO cited being seen as tied to data centres. Oracle sent a force majeure notice on its Project Jupiter site, which would let it delay payments if the site is not running by 2028. The hosts said Oracle fell 5% on the news and financier Blue Owl fell 7%.
Galloway put the physical backlog at 45 projects and $68bn blocked or delayed in three months. Elson cited polling that 70% of Americans oppose a data centre in their area. He read CoreWeave 's line that moratoriums will not hurt demand as a sign the risk is being brushed aside.
The same hosts drew a line between the promise and the cash. They cited Bloomberg: Nvidia trades at 17 times forward earnings, its lowest in over a decade. Galloway called it the "less insane" place for new AI money. He also questioned how certain those earnings are, given the vendor financing in the sector. Elson said he is not yet a buyer. Separately, CNBC reported that Michael Burry has moved his tech shorts into June puts, saying the bubble may burst sooner than he expected. On Excess Returns, Jason Hsu argued that an S&P 500 index fund is now mostly a bet on one theme.
So what: public investors are now discounting AI projects that have no operating assets. Nvidia, which does have cash flow, is being valued as if its earnings were in doubt. Micron's results on Wednesday test the part of the trade that is already producing revenue.
3Private-credit withdrawal requests are running ahead of reported defaults
On The Compound, Michael Batnik cited a Bloomberg report on Apollo Debt Solutions, a $26bn private-credit fund. It capped withdrawals at 5% of shares after holders asked to pull 14.7%, down from 16.8% last quarter. Hamilton Lane CEO Erik Hirsch said default rates are around 2%. He said bankruptcies are not rising materially. He put average discounts on second-hand fund stakes at about 13%.
Hirsch put the redemptions down to a young retail channel, where investors and advisers have only a couple of years' experience with these funds. He said a few managers have loose lending standards and heavy software exposure, but most portfolios he sees are performing. Batnik noted that Hamilton Lane 's own stock has nearly halved while its incentive fees rose. This was a CEO interview with no bear case put to the guest.
So what: for now, the pressure on these funds is people asking for their money back, not loans going bad. The test is whether defaults rise above 2% while the gates stay at 5%.
4Higher T-bill yields raise a stablecoin issuer's earnings without any new customers
Ross Givens, on his channel, laid out the arithmetic for Circle , the issuer of the USDC stablecoin. He said about 95% of Circle's revenue is interest on the Treasury bills backing roughly $75bn of coins. Last quarter it earned about 3.5% on those bills. Three-month bills hit 4.2% on Friday. On his numbers, an extra point on $75bn is about $750m a year, of which Circle keeps roughly 41%. That adds about $300m to trailing profit of $450m, a 66% rise from rates alone.
He tied the demand side to Meta 's Muse agent, which buys things for users. PayPal became a checkout option in Muse on 22 September. Givens called PayPal the obvious but wrong play. The GENIUS Act's stablecoin rules take effect on 18 January.
The caveats sit in the same video. The sum holds only if circulation stays flat and Circle's distribution partners keep their share. He expects Muse itself to fail. He paired the pitch with an offer for his paid trading service. Circle closed Monday at $85.80, against a high of almost $300 last year.
So what: this stock has a direct link to the October hike pricing in claim 1. If the Fed hikes as priced, the bill yield behind Givens's arithmetic holds.
What the sources recommended
Only three single-name calls came out of six videos. The Netflix call runs both ways inside one episode. Ross Givens recommended Circle as the way to own agent-driven payments, conditional on his interest-rate arithmetic above. On Prof G Markets, Scott Galloway said he is "quite bullish" on Netflix at $69. He cited its management and the 350 million households that start on its home screen. His co-host Ed Elson took the other side, saying "I don't want to buy it" because YouTube keeps taking viewing time: . Galloway is also "desperately trying to find shares" in Oura's IPO this week. The company is seeking a $15.6bn valuation, and Galloway expects a first-day gain of 30% or more. Elson wants in too. He flagged that most of the proceeds go to selling shareholders, that a sleep-tracking lawsuit is pending, and that Apple is a possible competitor.
Galloway also forecast that Micron beats and that Nike disappoints this week. Those are forecasts of results, not recommendations.
This week's jobs, inflation and memory data test the hike pricing
Consumer confidence prints today. Micron reports after the close on Wednesday, with consensus EPS of $32.32 on $52.2bn of revenue. Its result tests whether the cash-producing part of the AI trade in claim 2 still holds. Accenture reports before the open on Thursday, and Nike reports this week. The August PCE inflation data and Friday's September jobs report test the 68-cent October hike price. Kalshi expects payrolls to slow from 162,000. Oura's IPO this week shows whether the new-issue market is shut only to data-centre deals.
